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2020年全球资产钱景展望机构一致看好金价走势
2020-01-08 00:07  www.ramsutra.com

  刚刚过去的2019年,投资者亲历了全球经济同步趋缓、各国央行重返宽松、外部贸易形势变化多端等诸多不确定因素对市场的影响。心情尚未平静,时间已入新年,如何重新配置资产又提上日程。2020年,原油、黄金、美元、股票这四大资产“钱景”又有哪些不同?

Just past 2019, investors have seen the impact of many uncertainties on markets, such as the slowing global economy, the return of central banks to easing, and changing external trade. The mood has not been calm, the time has entered the new year, how to re-allocation of assets is on the agenda. In 2020, crude oil, gold, dollars, stocks, the four major assets of the \"money scene\" what are the differences?

  原油市场在过去一年走出先扬后抑的行情,最终以多头占据明显优势收尾。截至2019年年末,纽约商品交易所轻质原油期货价格较2018年年底涨幅超过30%,伦敦布伦特原油期货主力合约价格则较2018年底涨幅超过20%。

Crude oil market in the past year out of the first after the market, eventually with a clear advantage in the end. Light crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up more than 30 percent from the end of 2018 at the end of 2019, and London Brent crude futures were up more than 20 percent from the end of 2018.

  供给层面来看,虽然欧佩克和非欧佩克主要产油国近日就深化减产达成一致,同意在2020年第一季度将原油减产额度从每日120万桶上调至每日170万桶,但并未提出延长减产时间,原定减产协议将于2020年3月底到期。

On the supply side, while OPEC and key non-OPEC producers recently agreed to deepen production cuts, agreeing to increase the cut from 1.2 million barrels a day to 1.7 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020, there was no offer to extend the cut, with the original cut agreement due to expire by the end of March 2020.

  “随着‘欧佩克 ’可能在2020年底逐渐停止减产,我们较为看跌2020年年末的布伦特原油价格表现。”花旗银行(中国)有限公司个人银行财富管理部投资策略部主管吴晶晶表示,就2020年年中而言,油价是否下行,取决于全球宏观经济走势、地缘政治等因素。

“With OPEC likely to gradually stop cutting output by the end of 2020, we are more bearish on Brent crude oil prices at the end of 2020. Wu Jingjing, head of investment strategy at Citibank (China) Ltd.'s personal bank's wealth management department, said whether oil prices are down for the middle of 2020 depends on global macroeconomic trends, geopolitics and other factors.

  渣打银行认为,由于欧佩克在全球石油市场中所占份额持续下降,其减产能力在一定程度上受到限制,虽然预计石油需求会在2020年出现温和反弹,但不太可能出现显著复苏。总的来看,该机构认为原油市场供需形势较2019年变化不大,油价将在每桶约50美元至60美元的整体区间内波动。

Standard Chartered believes its ability to cut production is somewhat constrained as OPEC's share of the global oil market continues to fall, and that while a modest rebound in oil demand is expected in 2020, a significant recovery is unlikely. Overall, the agency believes the supply and demand situation in the crude oil market has changed little from 2019, with oil prices set to fluctuate in the overall range of about $50 to $60 a barrel.

  中国石化近期发布的《2020中国能源化工产业发展报告》认为,2020年国际油市整体仍处于过剩周期中,加之地缘政治和英国“”等影响,油价意外波动的风险犹存,预计2020年全年布伦特油价均值在每桶58美元至68美元之间。

The 2020 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report, recently published by Sinopec, says the risks of unexpected volatility in oil prices remain, with the international oil market still in an overall surplus cycle in 2020, combined with geopolitical and \"British \"effects.

  2019年,来自宏观经济、金融市场的不确定因素不断引发市场避险情绪,金价在此背景之下也一路走高,年末坚定站上每盎司1500美元上方。截至2019年12月31日,纽约黄金期价全年累计上涨%,伦敦现货黄金价格累计涨幅为%。

In 2019, uncertainty from macroeconomic and financial markets continued to trigger risk aversion, and gold prices were all the way up against that backdrop, firmly above $1,500 an ounce at the end of the year. As of December 31,2019, New York's gold futures prices were up% for the full year and London's spot gold prices were up%.

  作为坚定看多黄金表现的机构之一,高盛预计未来12个月内黄金价格将涨至每盎司1600美元。该机构贵金属分析师斯普罗吉斯(MikhailSprogis)认为,即将到来的美国大选、贸易局势变化等不确定性都是黄金市场走强的支撑因素。

Goldman, one of the firm-watchers, expects gold prices to rise to $1,600 an ounce over the next 12 months. Mikhail Sprogis, an analyst at the agency's precious metals analyst, believes the upcoming U.S. election, changes in the trade situation and other uncertainties are the underpinning of a stronger gold market.

  “宏观经济环境依然充满高度不确定性,中期而言,我们对金价持乐观看法。预计接下来的12至18个月中,金价或在每盎司1425美元至1675美元区间波动。”吴晶晶表示,新兴市场国家央行大量增加黄金储备,部分抵消了亚洲珠宝需求疲弱的影响,对金价构成一定支撑。

\"The macroeconomic environment remains highly uncertain and, in the medium term, we are optimistic about gold prices. Gold is expected to fluctuate between $1425 and $1675 an ounce over the next 12 to 18 months. \"Wu said the massive increase in gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets partly offset weak demand for Asian jewellery and supported gold prices.

  金融服务机构瑞信也认为,只要全球债券收益率维持在低位甚至为负,且经济不确定性持续存在,黄金和其他贵金属就可能继续受到支撑。

Financial-services firm Credit Suisse agrees that gold and other precious metals could continue to be supported as long as global bond yields remain low or even negative and economic uncertainty persists.

  华尔街分析师普遍预计美元指数将在2020年下跌数个百分点。投资公司BTIG首席股票和衍生品策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔(JulianEmanuel)预计美元将在2020年下跌约3%至5%。牛津经济研究院调查数据也显示,分析师预计美元到2020年底或会贬值5%。

Wall Street analysts generally expect the dollar index to fall several percentage points in 2020. Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at investment firm BTIG, expects the dollar to fall by about 3 to 5 percent in 2020. Analysts also expect the dollar to fall by 5 per cent by the end of 2020, according to the Oxford Institute of Economic Research.

  “全球贸易局势向好、英国‘脱欧’不确定性有所消退等导致美元指数从去年12月初一路下滑,反映市场风险偏好正在悄然升温。”CMCMarkets市场分析师MargaretYang表示,美元指数与新兴市场表现呈现长期负相关,当美元走弱时,国际资金更倾向于流入新兴市场寻求价值和收益。

The “global trade situation is improving and the UK's'Brexit' uncertainty has subsided, leading to a slide in the dollar index from early December, reflecting a creeping rise in market risk appetite. Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets, said the dollar index was long-term negatively correlated with emerging market performance, and when the dollar weakened, international money was more likely to flow into emerging markets in search of value and gains.

  渣打银行也对2020年美元指数持看跌态度。就货币市场而言,该机构预计发达市场货币如欧元和英镑将是美元走弱的最大受益者,此外,新兴市场资产也将受到美元走弱的明显利好。

Standard Chartered is also bearish on the 2020 dollar index. As far as money markets are concerned, the agency expects developed-market currencies such as the euro and the pound to be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's weakness, and emerging-market assets will also be visibly favored by the weakening dollar.

  瑞信认为,尽管投资者在2020年可能面临预料之外的突发事件和市场波动,但全球经济与风险资产有望展现弹性。该机构预计2020年全球经济增速为%,表明经济陷入衰退的可能性较低,在经济增长放缓之际,该机构预计股市将贡献个位数回报率。

Although investors may face unexpected contingencies and market volatility in 2020, the global economy and risky assets are expected to show resilience, according to Credit Suisse. The agency expects the global economy to grow by% in 2020, indicating a less likely recession, and expects the stock market to contribute to single-digit returns at a time of slowing growth.

  “我们认为全球经济和市场在面临这些全球挑战时将表现出弹性。目前,我们预计中国股票将在2020年跑赢全球新兴市场综合指数。”瑞信亚太区首席投资总监伍泽恩(JohnWoods)表示。

“We believe that the global economy and markets will show resilience in the face of these global challenges. For now, we expect Chinese stocks to outperform the global emerging market composite index by 2020. John Woods, Credit Suisse's chief investment officer for the Asia-Pacific region, said:'We are looking forward to it.

  景顺亚太区(日本除外)环球市场策略师赵耀庭也认为,在发达市场央行继续推行宽松货币政策、新兴市场降低利率的预期之下,他预计2020年风险资产表现将继续向好。(汤翠玲)

Mr zhao, global market strategist at jingshun asia-pacific (except japan), agrees that he expects risky asset performance to continue to improve in 2020, following expectations that the central bank of developed markets will continue to pursue loose monetary policy and lower interest rates in emerging markets. (TONG Chui-ling)