Just past 2019, investors have seen the impact of many uncertainties on markets, such as the slowing global economy, the return of central banks to easing, and changing external trade. The mood has not been calm, the time has entered the new year, how to re-allocation of assets is on the agenda. In 2020, crude oil, gold, dollars, stocks, the four major assets of the \"money scene\" what are the differences?
Crude oil market in the past year out of the first after the market, eventually with a clear advantage in the end. Light crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up more than 30 percent from the end of 2018 at the end of 2019, and London Brent crude futures were up more than 20 percent from the end of 2018.
On the supply side, while OPEC and key non-OPEC producers recently agreed to deepen production cuts, agreeing to increase the cut from 1.2 million barrels a day to 1.7 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020, there was no offer to extend the cut, with the original cut agreement due to expire by the end of March 2020.
“With OPEC likely to gradually stop cutting output by the end of 2020, we are more bearish on Brent crude oil prices at the end of 2020. Wu Jingjing, head of investment strategy at Citibank (China) Ltd.'s personal bank's wealth management department, said whether oil prices are down for the middle of 2020 depends on global macroeconomic trends, geopolitics and other factors.
Standard Chartered believes its ability to cut production is somewhat constrained as OPEC's share of the global oil market continues to fall, and that while a modest rebound in oil demand is expected in 2020, a significant recovery is unlikely. Overall, the agency believes the supply and demand situation in the crude oil market has changed little from 2019, with oil prices set to fluctuate in the overall range of about $50 to $60 a barrel.
The 2020 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report, recently published by Sinopec, says the risks of unexpected volatility in oil prices remain, with the international oil market still in an overall surplus cycle in 2020, combined with geopolitical and \"British \"effects.
In 2019, uncertainty from macroeconomic and financial markets continued to trigger risk aversion, and gold prices were all the way up against that backdrop, firmly above $1,500 an ounce at the end of the year. As of December 31,2019, New York's gold futures prices were up% for the full year and London's spot gold prices were up%.
Goldman, one of the firm-watchers, expects gold prices to rise to $1,600 an ounce over the next 12 months. Mikhail Sprogis, an analyst at the agency's precious metals analyst, believes the upcoming U.S. election, changes in the trade situation and other uncertainties are the underpinning of a stronger gold market.
\"The macroeconomic environment remains highly uncertain and, in the medium term, we are optimistic about gold prices. Gold is expected to fluctuate between $1425 and $1675 an ounce over the next 12 to 18 months. \"Wu said the massive increase in gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets partly offset weak demand for Asian jewellery and supported gold prices.
Financial-services firm Credit Suisse agrees that gold and other precious metals could continue to be supported as long as global bond yields remain low or even negative and economic uncertainty persists.
Wall Street analysts generally expect the dollar index to fall several percentage points in 2020. Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at investment firm BTIG, expects the dollar to fall by about 3 to 5 percent in 2020. Analysts also expect the dollar to fall by 5 per cent by the end of 2020, according to the Oxford Institute of Economic Research.
The “global trade situation is improving and the UK's'Brexit' uncertainty has subsided, leading to a slide in the dollar index from early December, reflecting a creeping rise in market risk appetite. Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets, said the dollar index was long-term negatively correlated with emerging market performance, and when the dollar weakened, international money was more likely to flow into emerging markets in search of value and gains.
Standard Chartered is also bearish on the 2020 dollar index. As far as money markets are concerned, the agency expects developed-market currencies such as the euro and the pound to be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's weakness, and emerging-market assets will also be visibly favored by the weakening dollar.
Although investors may face unexpected contingencies and market volatility in 2020, the global economy and risky assets are expected to show resilience, according to Credit Suisse. The agency expects the global economy to grow by% in 2020, indicating a less likely recession, and expects the stock market to contribute to single-digit returns at a time of slowing growth.
“We believe that the global economy and markets will show resilience in the face of these global challenges. For now, we expect Chinese stocks to outperform the global emerging market composite index by 2020. John Woods, Credit Suisse's chief investment officer for the Asia-Pacific region, said:'We are looking forward to it.
Mr zhao, global market strategist at jingshun asia-pacific (except japan), agrees that he expects risky asset performance to continue to improve in 2020, following expectations that the central bank of developed markets will continue to pursue loose monetary policy and lower interest rates in emerging markets. (TONG Chui-ling)