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2020-01-11 18:47  www.ramsutra.com


Real estate industry is an important pillar industry of our national economy, and it is also an indispensable part of every country's economic structure. But real estate is like a spring, once the policy is slightly loose, the real estate bubble will rise quickly.


Today, the domestic property market bubble is being contained, but under the 13th Five-Year Plan, between 100 million and 100 million people will enter the city from the countryside by 2030, the property market will have more demand, and the pressure to prevent the bubble will be greater. It is a dilemma for many decision-makers, including china, to protect their livelihoods and control house prices. Both hong kong and japan ended up bailing out house prices, while russia ended up hurting the economy to protect them.


The Hong Kong currency has been pegged to the dollar since October 1983. However, it is precisely because of this that Hong Kong has lost its independence in monetary policy decisions, much less its currency and house prices.


In the face of difficulties, Hong Kong's exchange rate or house prices? If house prices are protected, Hong Kong prices will continue to rise as short-term market rates do not rise as the Fed raises interest rates. According to statistics, the price of class A private homes on Hong Kong Island rose 35 percent in 2016-2018. If the exchange rate is maintained, liquidity is bound to tighten, and if the hong kong gold administration follows the fed to raise interest rates, long-term house prices will be frustrated and free-flowing capital will face capital outflows in hong kong.


In the end, Hong Kong chose to abandon house prices and stabilize its exchange rate. Since the second quarter of 2018, the HKMA has repeatedly bought Hong Kong dollars in the market to put in dollars, aimed at stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.


And after short-term market interest rates have risen again and again, interest rates on medium- and long-term loans have begun to rise. Major banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and BOC Hong Kong have also followed the hike in mortgage lending rates. By the beginning of the third quarter of 2018, Hong Kong's home loan rate had hit its highest in nearly a decade, directly weighing on house prices.


After the Plaza Accord was signed in 1985, Japan reduced the market discount rate to curb the yen's rise, while expanding and improving its economic competitiveness, but low interest rates had limited effect on competitiveness but led to a real estate bubble.


As money poured into japan's property sector, land prices in japan began to soar. Tokyo's commercial land price index nearly tripled in just three years from 1985 to 1988, according to survey statistics released by Japan's Land Office.


In order not to allow the yen to continue to appreciate substantially, the government decided to use administrative measures to proactively squeeze out the property bubble. At this time, due to the bankruptcy of the company, resulting in a large number of sold-out real estate into the market, the real estate market oversupply.


At the same time, because the yen appreciation space is suppressed, arbitrage space is shrinking day by day, international capital began to flee. In 1992, the government introduced a \"land tax\" policy, the japanese real estate market immediately began a long journey down. From 1992 to 2015, the price of residential land in the country's six major cities fell by 65 per cent and 53 per cent in all cities, according to the bureau of statistics.


After several years of labor pain after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian economy began to get on track, and the expansion of the economy was bound to bring currency overhang, while President Putin also incorporated housing into Russia's four major development projects. A variety of good makes russian house prices soar.


But when the exchange rate is free to float, it undoubtedly increases the instability of the economy. When the rain falls at night, crude oil prices start to fall, and russia, a country that relies mainly on energy exports, has a single economic structure, and the volatility of crude oil prices will directly lead to instability in the value of the ruble. At first, russia wanted a balance between exchange and house prices, but it turned out to be one.


In the face of devaluation of the ruble and massive capital flight, the russian central bank, on the one hand, raised its benchmark interest rate and used its foreign-exchange reserves to hedge against falling exchange rates.


None of this will help, however. On november 10,2014, the russian central bank announced that it would lift the fluctuation of the effective real exchange rate and abandon the automatic intervention on the ruble exchange rate. Over the next two months, the ruble fell sharply by nearly 50 per cent. Yet russia, trying to keep house prices from being weighed down by raising its benchmark rate, began gradually cutting it, down six percentage points in half a year from its december 2014 high of five in a row.


Eventually, Russian domestic real estate first-hand house prices began to rise, rising by% from 51,714 roubles per sq m in December 2014 to 53,558 roubles per sq m in June 2016. But the economy can't stand this, with GDP growing negatively again from 14 years.


In retrospect, we can see that the economic structure of Hong Kong and Japan after the abandonment of house prices is still relatively stable, especially Hong Kong, even in the case of declining or even negative global growth, the growth rate of 3% in 2018, and the Russian example reminds me of Guo Shuqing's saying: all countries and regions that rely too much on real estate to achieve and maintain economic prosperity will ultimately pay a heavy price!


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