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美军如何猎杀苏拉曼尼竟是监测巴格达土豆销量信息美军情报
2020-01-08 00:59  www.ramsutra.com

  一位巨佬建议边境计划发掘一下RT-RG的事情,巨佬不愧是巨佬,顺着RT-RG一锹下去,果然大开眼界,读了一些资料,又恍然发现很多似曾相识。

A giant suggested that the border plan to dig up the RT-RG thing, the giant is worthy of a giant, along the RT-RG shovel, sure enough eye-opener, read some materials, and suddenly found a lot of deja vu.

  首先这段文字强调实时区域网关RealTimeRegionalGateway(正确缩写是RT-RG)对于信号情报工作的提速效果拔群,的确是超级拔群,之前是龟速,现在是光速。

First of all, this text emphasizes the real-time regional gateway RealTime Regional Gateway (RT-RG) for signal intelligence work speed effect pull group, is really super pull group, before is tortoise speed, now is the speed of light.

  RT-RG是美国国家安全局搞的,美国国家安全局的主页是搞信号情报SIGINT,可以理解为专注窃听的衙门,由于过度神秘,该局一直被媒体戏称为“查无此局”(NSA,NoSuchAgency)。

RT-RG was created by the NSA, whose home page is Signal Intelligence SIGINT, which can be interpreted as the eavesdropping-focused Yamen, which has been dubbed \"the NSA, NoSuch Agency\" by the media because of its excessive mystery.

  911之后,查无此局就获得授权,开始监视经光纤进入美国的全部伊拉克通信信号,2007年,小布什开始大幅增加驻伊拉克部队后,伊拉克战争进入治安战相持期,RT-RG进入伊拉克,开始截获伊拉克全部的通信信号,这种信号已经不限于手机、电话、网络通信这类民用信号,RC-135、C-12这类电子侦察机、执行电子侦察任务的无人机甚至卫星获取的信号情报。可以想像,这么搞数据量会有多大,把这些数据都传回本土的NSA处理部门显然不是个好主意,因此,为了融合、分析这些数据,RT-RG不再使用传统的集中式数据库和处理方式,而是采用在地的分布式系统来存储、处理数据,这恐怕也是唯一可行的办法,否则即便传输带宽没问题,提取、分析工作带来的延迟也足以让情报快速过期,无法利用。

After September 11, without authorization, the bureau began to monitor all Iraq's communications signals entering the United States via fibre optics.In 2007, after George W. Bush began a substantial increase in troops in Iraq, the Iraq War entered its security-warring phase, and RT-RG entered Iraq and began to intercept all of Iraq's communications signals, which were no longer limited to civilian signals such as cell phones, telephones and Internet communications. It is clearly not a good idea to send all this data back to the NSA's local processing department, so to fuse and analyze the data, RT-RG no longer uses the traditional centralized database and processing methods, but rather uses a local distributed system to store and process the data, which is probably the only feasible way, otherwise, even if the transmission bandwidth is no problem, the delay of extracting and analyzing is enough to make the information expire quickly.

  IED防不胜防,征兆极微弱,唯一可行的办法是高效的SIGINT提供预警,预警时间可能只有几秒——一个路口转错,就可能遭遇IED,打一把方向盘也就是几秒的事,所以任何延迟都无法容忍。

The only way to do this is for the efficient SIGINT to provide an early warning, which can only take a few seconds – one turn at the wrong end of the road, or a steering wheel, or seconds – so any delay cannot be tolerated.

  时延还不是最大的问题,最大的问题在于大海捞针——即便你能获取全部通信,还是没有用,你必须把疑似线索找出来,这种事和反潜战有的一拼——漫长到可怕的作战。米国有SIGINT专家把事称作在干草垛里找一根针。

Delays aren't the biggest problem. The biggest problem is that the needle in a haystack -- even if you can get all the communication, it's still useless, and you've got to find out what you're looking for, and what the anti-submarine warfare has to do with it -- it's a terrible battle. SIGINT experts in the US have called it a needle in a haystack.

  首先RT-RG提供了巨大的数据量,叫大数据都不足以形容它的完整,我觉得可以把这个数据量称为全知全视。有了这样的好的数据基础,接下来就要开发专用化的应用来解决特定问题了。

First of all, RT-RG provides a huge amount of data, called big data is not enough to describe its integrity, I think this amount of data can be called omniscient. With such a good data base, the next step is to develop specialized applications to solve specific problems.

  针对IED的应用叫做RT10(边境计划觉得这个名字可能是realtime10sec的缩写把),RT10需要每天处理采集1亿次“电话事件”(callevents)或元数据记录,100万次“语音通话”或电话记录,1亿个互联网访问元数据记录。

For the ied app, called rt10(the border program thinks the name may be the acronym for realtime 10sec), rt10 requires processing 100 million \"call events\" or metadata records a day,1 million \"voice calls\" or phone records, and 100 million internet access metadata records.

  顺便跑题一句,其中一项重要工作是语音转换,大概就是类似X大讯飞的活儿把,因此据说NSA的人看到googleforvoice面世后,都很开心,当然专用的语音转换工具NSA一直在开发和迭代。在伊拉克的RT-RG使用的语音转换工具叫voiceRT(今日俄罗斯之声XD,justkidding)。

One important task, by the way, is speech conversion, which is probably the work of iFLYTEK X, so NSA people are said to have been happy when google for invoice came out, and the NSA, a dedicated voice conversion tool, has been developing and iterative. The voice conversion tool used by RT-RG in Iraq is called voice RT.

  抵抗分子肯定不会在电话里说“我今天在拉希德街洋葱头庙对面的马路牙子底下埋了3枚152炮弹,就等着悍马车来了”

The resistance certainly wouldn't have said on the phone that \"I buried three 152 shells under the teeth of the road opposite the onion temple on Rashid street today, waiting for the Humvee to arrive\"

  抵抗分子里也有人精,当意识到手机通信可能暴露自己时,有些狠角色就干脆不用手机了。这样RT10就没办法了把?才不会,美国媒体披露了一个真实案例:

There are also resistance elements, and when they realize that cell phone communication may expose themselves, some ruthless characters simply don't need a cell phone. so rt10 can't handle it? No, the U.S. media revealed a real case:

  一位抵抗分子真的觉悟到手机会暴露自己,于是他回家就把手机拆开(takehiscellphonecompletelyapart,可能是把电池拔掉的意思把?),这样RT10的跟踪就中断了,很快查无此局的分析师发现这位抵抗分子的妻子活动很规律,她每周末就去巴格达南部找老公过周末,于是RT10转而跟踪妻子的手机通信,这样就部分地恢复了对老公的跟踪。

A resistance actually realized that the phone would reveal itself, so he went home and took the phone apart (takehiscellphonecompletelyapart), which might mean unplugging the battery? ), so RT10's tracking was interrupted, and soon analysts at the bureau found the resistance's wife to be regular, and she went to her husband in southern Baghdad for the weekend, so RT10 followed his wife's cell phone communications instead, partially resuming the tracking of her husband.

  (IED事件数量统计图,注意,2007年6月是转折点,之后IED造成的威胁开始显著下跌,这段时间应该就是RT-RG开始产生有效引导的时段)

( IED event count chart, note that June 2007 was a turning point, and then the IED threat began to fall significantly, the period when RT-RG began to produce effective guidance)

  可以想象,这时候RT-RG的分析中,更多的是基于相关性。比如抵抗分子要策划一次袭击,那么必然需要集结一定兵力,人多了,就难免要增加采购食品、生活用品什么的。

It can be imagined that in this time RTRG analysis, more is based on correlation. For example, if the resistance is to plan an attack, it is necessary to assemble a certain force and a lot of people, so it is inevitable to increase the purchase of food and articles of life.

  2009年,查无此局驻阿富汗负责人布莱恩·古德曼(BrianGoodman)曾指出“阿富汗80%以上的战斗是由SIGINT引导或由SIGINT支持的……没有任何一次作战行动是脱离SIGINT支持进行的。”到2011年,RT-RG已经在90%的SIGINT行动中扮演关键角色。

In 2009, Brian Goodman, the bureau's head in Afghanistan, noted that \"more than 80 percent of the fighting in Afghanistan is led by SIGINT or supported by SIGINT... No operations have been carried out without SIGINT support. By 2011, RT-RG had played a key role in 90% of SIGINT operations.

  相应的,查无此局的外派人员也越来越多,自2001年起,RT-RG伊拉克项目累计外派人员高达5000人,阿富汗则为8000人,RT-RG总计外派人数为18000人。

As a result, there are more and more expatriates without the bureau. Since 2001, the RT-RG Iraq project has accumulated a total of 5,000 expatriates, compared with 8,000 in Afghanistan and 18,000 in RT-RG.

  Nexus7在2010年完成初步研发,并立即投入阿富汗,据报道仅运行82天,就提供了首次有意义的发现,或者说提示,或者说预测。当时参联会副主席Gen。JamesCartwright,了解到Nexus7之后,第一句指示是“赶紧的!”“Goandgofaster。”

The Nexus 7, which completed its initial research and development in 2010 and went into Afghanistan immediately, reportedly provided its first meaningful discovery, or hint, or prediction, in just 82 days. Gen, Vice-President of the Federation at the time. James Cartwright, after learning about Nexus 7, the first instruction was \"Hurry!\" Go and gofaster.

  那么RT-RG在此次苏拉曼尼定点清除行动中发挥了多大作用?毫无疑问肯定相当大,要知道RT-RG自从部署在伊拉克之后,一直在没有停转,傻子才会停转这么NB的工具!那么RT-RG可以独立完成杀伤链前端作业麻?毫无疑问,边境计划firefly的答案是不能,正如上一篇里所说,尺有所短寸有所长,情报作业如同跑接力赛,缺了任何一棒,都完不成比赛。

So how much of a role did RT-RG play in this Suramanian clearing? There's no doubt that it's pretty big to know that RT - RG hasn't stopped running since it was deployed in Iraq, and that the fool would have stopped turning such an NB tool! So RT - RG can independently complete the kill chain front-end job hemp? The answer to the border plan, no doubt, is no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

  细想一下,苏拉曼尼不至于过多使用手机之类工具,RT-RG对此次行动的帮助更多的恐怕还是通过相关性积累来获取疑似线索,打个不太恰当的比方,那就是“1小时猎杀苏拉曼尼的秘诀,居然是监测巴格达土豆销量之类信息”。

Think about it, Suramanian doesn't use too much of a mobile phone tool, RT-RG's help to the operation may be more likely to use the build-up of relevance to obtain suspected clues, for example,\" a one-hour hunt for Suramanian is the secret to monitoring the sale of potatoes in Baghdad.\"

  再有一句,任何情报都是有时效的,但是领导决心未必总是和情报有效期重合,甚至往往是不重合的。这时候川子有一个关键动作:提前下放了决策权,反正就是要干掉苏拉曼尼,你们看着办。没有这一步,后面绝不可能这么顺(当然,苏拉曼尼通过一系列针对在伊拉克美军目标的挑衅成功激怒了川子,这一点也很重要),其次MQ-9最长留空20小时,令杀伤链的接战环节获得了极大极大的灵活性,

Again, any intelligence is time-barred, but the determination of the leadership may not always coincide with the validity of the intelligence, or even often not. At this point kawaziko has a key move: early decentralization of decision-making, anyway is to kill suramani, you do it. Without this, it would never have been this easy (of course, it's important that suramani infuriated sakawa through a series of provocations against u.s. targets in iraq), followed by mq-9, which left a maximum of 20 hours empty, giving the kill chain a great deal of flexibility.