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扬言美国人尸体将遍布整个中东伊朗能复仇吗伊朗
2020-01-08 00:07  www.ramsutra.com

  自从唐纳德·特朗普“出人意料”地就任美国总统,在中东的舞台上,美国与伊朗间的角力便一直好戏连台。不过剧情推进到2019年,不少看客也许会厌倦:美伊双方一贯“光说不练”,无论发生什么,最终都会不了了之。

Ever since Donald Trump's \"unexpected \"election as US president, America's rivalry with Iran on the Middle East stage has been good. But as the plot progresses to 2019, many spectators may get tired of the fact that america and iraq have always been \"just talking and not practicing\" and that whatever happens will eventually end up dead.

  美军于1月3日凌晨在伊拉克巴格达机场附近发动空袭,击毙伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·苏莱马尼,以及伊拉克什叶派民兵组织“人民动员组织”副指挥官阿布·迈赫迪·穆汉迪斯。

U.S. forces launched airstrikes near Iraqi airport in Baghdad in the early hours of January 3, killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade\" commander Qassim Sulaimani and Iraqi Shiite militia group \"People's Mobilization\" deputy commander Abu Mehdi Mohamedis.

  2017年11月,美国全面恢复对伊朗的严厉制裁,特别是对石油贸易和金融领域的制裁措施。制裁对伊朗经济民生杀伤明显,而在过去一年多时间里,伊朗和美国及其地区盟国也缠斗不断。

In November 2017, the United States fully reinstated harsh sanctions against Iran, especially on the oil trade and financial sector. The sanctions have done obvious damage to Iran's economy, and for more than a year Iran and the United States and their regional allies have fought.

  这一年,伊朗先后分四个阶段中止履行伊核协议部分条款,往来霍尔木兹海峡油轮接连被破坏,英国油轮被扣,沙特机场遭袭、油田被炸,美国“全球鹰”被伊朗击落,而伊朗的油轮在红海上也被不知哪里来的火箭弹“打了一闷棍”。

This year, iran has been suspended in four stages to implement some of the terms of the iranian nuclear agreement, oil tankers across the strait of hormuz have been damaged, british oil tankers have been seized, saudi airports have been attacked, oil fields have been blown down, u.s. global hawks have been shot down by iran, and iranian oil tankers have been hit by unknown rockets on the red sea.

  但凡美国和盟国方面遭受损失,美国方面都会指责伊朗是幕后凶手,而伊朗方面则遵循“惯例“,矢口否认。6月,美国“全球鹰”无人机在伊朗领空被击落,按照特朗普的说法,美军一度决定对伊朗境内目标实施军事打击,但他最后忍住了。10月,在红海航行的伊朗油轮遭火箭弹袭击,船只自己驶回伊朗,伊朗声称“严惩凶手”,不过没了下文。

Whenever the U.S. and its allies have suffered, the U.S. will accuse Iran of being a behind-the-scenes murderer, while Iran will follow the \"convention\" and deny it. In June, the U.S. Global Hawk drone was shot down in Iranian airspace and, according to Trump, the U.S. military decided at one point to carry out a military strike against targets inside Iran, but he finally held back. In october, iranian oil tankers on their way to the red sea were hit by rockets and their ships sailed back to iran, which claimed to have \"severely punished the killer\" but not the following.

  美伊之间互动,“默契”明显,“红线”清晰:摩擦不交火,对峙不冲突,避免造成人员伤亡,造成局势失控风险。而且双方并不在伊朗本土“过招”,伊朗虽然中止履行伊核协议部分条款,但是一直没有触及涉及武器级核技术的20%丰度浓缩铀,并再次重申无意发展核武器。

The interaction between the United States and Iraq,\" tacit understanding \"obvious,\" red line\" clear: friction does not cross fire, confrontation does not conflict, avoid causing casualties, resulting in the situation out of control risk. And the two sides are not \"overreaching\" on iran's own soil, which, while suspending some of the terms of its nuclear agreement, has not touched on the 20% abundance of enriched uranium involving weapons-grade nuclear technology and has reaffirmed its no intention of developing nuclear weapons.

  击毙苏莱马尼,美国跨过了那条红线,打破了默契。而且美国国防部公开且高调地宣布,军事行动是特朗普总统亲自下令,美军直接执行。

Killing Sulaimani, the United States crossed the red line and broke the tacit understanding. And the U.S. Department of Defense has publicly and high-profilely declared that the military operation was ordered by President Trump himself and carried out directly by the U.S. military.

  这一次,美军不仅让伊朗流血,且直接“斩首”伊朗军队高级将领。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发誓报复,苏莱马尼继任者卡尼甚至扬言要让美国人在中东“尸横遍野”。

This time, the u. s.military not only bloodshed iran, but also directly \"decapitate\" senior iranian generals. Iran's supreme leader, ayatollah ali khamenei, has vowed revenge, and mr kani, his successor, has even threatened to keep americans \"dead\" in the middle east.

  最高领袖哈梅内伊宣布全国哀悼3天。首都德黑兰的广告牌上的商业广告被撤换下来,换上了苏莱马尼的纪念海报。全国各地爆发反美、反以色列的示威游行,部分示威者甚至激动流泪,高喊随时准备好迎战。

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has declared three days of national mourning. Commercial ads on billboards in the capital, Tehran, were replaced with a memorial poster from Sulaimani. Anti-American, anti-Israel demonstrations broke out across the country, and some of the demonstrators even wept with excitement and shouted that they were ready to meet.

  伊斯兰革命40年来,伊朗官方差不多每年都会动员民众上街,组织反美游行示威活动,但此前参与群众上街散步者居多,像这般普遍地慷慨激昂,近年罕见。

  中国社科院伊朗问题专家陆瑾说,在伊朗民众心中,苏莱马尼是个“民族英雄,反恐战士”。他领导的伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“圣城旅”,是伊朗武装力量精锐中的精锐。他在群众心目中的“人设”也很好。“走群众路线”,平易近人,生活朴素,甚至有普通民众搭乘公共汽车的时候还偶遇过他。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在伊朗政坛分量很重,但苏莱马尼一直严守军人应当政治立场中立的分际,不干涉政治事务。总之,苏莱马尼威望很高,伊朗人民爱戴他。

Lu jin, an expert on iran at the chinese academy of social sciences, said mr. sulaimani was a \"national hero and anti-terrorist fighter\" in the hearts of iranians. He led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade \", the elite of the Iranian armed forces. He is also very good in the eyes of the masses. \"Take the mass line \", approachable, simple life, even ordinary people on the bus also met him. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is very important in Iranian politics, but Mr. Suleimani has strictly observed that the military should be politically neutral and not interfere in political affairs. In short, he is highly respected and loved by the Iranian people.

  不过,在伊朗之外,苏莱马尼是个狠角色。他发迹于两伊战争,虽然伊朗政府一直宣称自己应叙利亚政府邀请,提供“军事顾问”,并向伊拉克提供“协助”,但只要多少了解情况的人都清楚,苏莱马尼和他领导下的“圣城旅”,在打击极端组织“伊斯兰国”艰苦卓绝的战斗中发挥了关重要的作用,将恐怖主义挡在了伊朗国门之外。

But outside iran, mr. sulemani is a ruthless player. Although the Iranian government has always claimed to have offered \"military advisers\" and \"assistance\" to Iraq at the invitation of the Syrian government, it is clear to some people who know the situation that Mr. Suleimani and the Al-Quds Brigade under his leadership have played a crucial role in the arduous fight against the extremist group Islamic State, which has kept terrorism out of the country.

  然而苏莱马尼对伊朗国家安全的重要意义远不止于他在反恐战场上的军功。随着反恐战争的推进,什叶派民兵武装在伊拉克、叙利亚等国快速做大,并纷纷被伊朗“收编”,一条从伊朗本土经伊拉克北部延伸至叙利亚、黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦,直抵以色列家门口、作为伊朗势力范围的“什叶派之弧”逐渐编织起来。这片广阔的领土上,什叶派伊斯兰教的信众被有效地组织了起来,实际上成为了保卫伊朗国家安全的“战略纵深”,虽然不至于抵消美国及其盟国,特别是以色列,因信息化作战能力而对伊朗拥有的压倒性军事优势,但足以构成挑战和威胁。

But Sulaimani's importance to Iran's national security goes far beyond his military prowess on the anti-terrorist scene. With the advance of the war on terror, shia militias have quickly grown in iraq, syria and other countries, and have been iran's \"integration \", a stretch of iran from northern iraq to syria, lebanon and palestinians, directly to israel's door, as the\" shia arc \"of iran's sphere of influence gradually woven. In this vast territory, the followers of Shia Islam have been effectively organized, effectively becoming a \"strategic depth \"to safeguard Iran's national security, which, while not offsetting the overwhelming military advantage that the United States and its allies, especially Israel, have had over Iran over information-based combat capabilities, is a challenge and a threat.

  美国全面重启对伊朗的严厉制裁已经一年多,虽然伊朗民生经济受到了很大冲击,里亚尔币值腰斩、国内物价翻倍,但是制裁效果其实并不如预期,伊朗国家机器总体运转正常,伊朗国内基本物资供应充足,社会保持基本稳定,没有出现严重动荡,按照伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊自己的说法,当前伊朗面临的问题,主要还是政府治理存在失误,是伊朗自己的原因。

It has been more than a year since the United States fully renewed the harsh sanctions on Iran, and although the Iranian economy has been hit hard, the value of the currency has halved and domestic prices have doubled, the sanctions have actually been less effective than expected.

  “什叶派之弧”在反制美国制裁过程中发挥了至关重要的作用。美国对伊朗关闭了SWIFT系统,切断了伊朗银行与外界的金融联系,制裁伊朗石油出口和航运,“什叶派之弧”却能帮助伊朗“走私”和“洗钱”,虽然成本要高于正常贸易,交易量也大打折扣,但终究是一条在困难时期往伊朗输血的脐带,美国制裁伊朗的大网也因此漏洞百出。

“The Shi'ite arc has played a crucial role in the anti-US sanctions process. The US shut down the SWIFT system on Iran, cut off financial ties with Iranian banks, sanctioned Iranian oil exports and shipping, and the "Shia arc "can help Iran to "smuggling "and "money-laundering,"although the cost is higher than normal trade and trading volume is substantially reduced, it is ultimately a umbilical cord for blood transfusions to Iran in difficult times, and the network of US sanctions against Iran is leaking.

  与苏莱马尼一同阵亡的,还有伊拉克什叶派民兵组织“人民动员组织”副指挥官穆汉迪斯。美国这一轮行动目标清晰:削弱什叶派民兵组织,破坏什叶派之弧,封堵对伊制裁的漏洞。苏莱马尼和穆汉迪斯则都是什叶派组织的中枢人物。

Along with mr. sulemani, he was killed by muhandis, deputy commander of iraq's shia militia, the people's mobilization group. America's round of action is clear: weaken shia militias, undermine shia's arc, and close loopholes in sanctions against iraq. Sulaimani and Muhandis are central figures in Shia groups.

  美军接下来仍可能继续实施对伊拉克、甚至叙利亚境内什叶派民兵武装和伊朗革命卫队在境外军事人员的军事打击,不过,“什叶派之弧”并非美军单靠现有兵力和空袭所能摧毁。什叶派宗教系统才是组织能力的关键,很难通过军事打击等物理手段所能轻易消灭。

U.S. forces may continue to carry out military strikes against Shiite militias in Iraq, and even in Syria, and against Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel outside the country, but the \"Shi'ite arc\" cannot be destroyed solely by existing forces and air strikes. Shi'ite religious systems are the key to organizational capacity and are hardly easily eliminated by physical means such as military strikes.

  如果美国带来的只是枪林弹雨、战火纷飞,而不是和平稳定、幸福繁荣,他收获的到底是什叶派民众的鲜血和仇恨,还是归顺与认同?

If America brings nothing but bullets and flames of war, rather than peace and stability and happiness and prosperity, will it reap the blood and hatred of the Shi'ite people, or will it return to conformity and approval?

  在伊朗待一段时间就能感觉到,伊朗人的确是一个自尊心和自豪感极强的民族,很多时候甚至会让人觉得那是傲慢和自不量力。苏莱马尼作为伊朗一个主权国家武装力量的高级指挥官,却惨死于美军毒手,伊朗全国上下的愤怒可想而知,是可忍,孰不可忍。

For some time in iran, the iranians are truly a nation of pride and pride, and in many cases even pride and self-distrust. As a senior commander of the armed forces of one of iran's sovereign states, mr. sulemani's death from the u. s.military has been disastrous, the iranian national ire can be expected.

  今天伊朗何尝不是面临这样的局面。伊朗的经济总量只有美国的2%,连参加G20峰会的资格都没有,军费大约只相当于美国%至2%,整体装备质量落后美国40年以上。自伊斯兰革命以来,伊朗全军上下没有任何一名将官有过指挥机械化大兵团作战的经验,这也包括苏莱马尼,而他已经是伊朗军中最具作战经验的将领。

This is not the case for Iran today. Iran's economy is only 2% of the U.S. economy, not even eligible for the G20 summit, military spending is roughly the equivalent of US% to 2%, and overall equipment is more than 40 years behind the U.S. Since the islamist revolution, none of iran's generals has had the experience of directing a mechanized regiment, including mr. sulemani, who is already the most experienced general in the iranian army.

  如果伊朗方面实施报复,并造成美国方面人员伤亡,将再招致美军反击,在美国总统大选年,允许特朗普妥协让步的外交空间十分有限,“冤冤相报”的恶性循环极易失控。

If iran retaliates and causes american casualties, it will provoke american counter-attacks. In the u. s. presidential election year, the diplomatic space for allowing mr. trump to compromise is limited, and the vicious circle of \"retribution\" can easily get out of control.

  两国一旦爆发全面军事冲突,在信息化条件下的高技术战争,面对规模庞大、“海陆空天电”五位一体、协同作战的美军,伊朗国家有组织的军事抵抗被彻底摧毁并不以任何人的意志为转移。美国对伊军事行动最大的障碍只在于难以估量的战争成本。

In the event of a full-scale military conflict between the two countries and a high-tech war under the condition of information technology, in the face of a large-scale,\" sea, sea and air power \"five-in-one, coordinated combat of the United States forces, the organized military resistance of the Iranian state was completely destroyed without any human will as a transfer. The biggest obstacle to America's military campaign against Iraq is the incalculable cost of war.

  如果双方领导人足够理性,都不应继续进行任何军事冒险。特别是对伊朗而言,当前最主要的工作并非“复仇”,而是专心处理好国内问题,国民经济和国防建设要进步,人民生活要改善,只要伊朗国内保持稳定,不再出现去年11月的混乱,极大的提高美国对伊朗发动战争的潜在成本,伊朗国家安全就越有保障,苏莱马尼也就没有白牺牲。

If the leaders on both sides are rational enough, no military adventure should continue. For Iran, in particular, the main task today is not to \"revenge,\"but to focus on domestic issues, to advance the national economy and national defence, to improve people's lives, and to ensure that Iran's national security becomes more secure as long as the country remains stable and no longer suffers from last November's chaos.

  美伊两国的克制、忍让和默契已被特朗普击毙苏莱马尼的军令抹去,双方未来的互动充满着不确定性,任何一点意外星火,都可能再次在中东引爆火药桶。历史上,战争爆发大多充满着意外。

The US and Iraq ' s restraint, forbearance, and tacit understanding have been erased by Trump ' s military order to kill Sulaimani, and the future interaction between the two sides is full of uncertainty, and any unexpected spark could once again detonate a powder keg in the Middle East. Historically, the outbreak of war was mostly full of surprises.