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美国定点清除伊朗高级将领中东战争阀门开启中东战争伊朗
2020-01-08 00:07  www.ramsutra.com

  据央视新闻报道,继美军3日凌晨空袭伊拉克巴格达国际机场,导致伊朗高级将领苏莱曼尼身亡之后,当地时间3日晚,美军再次在巴格达附近发动空袭,造成6人死亡,3人重伤。

On Wednesday night, U.S. forces again launched air strikes near Baghdad, killing six people and seriously injuring three, following an early morning air strike by U.S. forces at Baghdad International Airport in Iraq that killed Iran's top general, Suleimani, CCTV news reported.

  苏莱曼尼军衔虽仅为准将,但在伊朗却拥有强大的影响力和知名度。他所指挥的“圣城旅”并非简单的战斗部队,而是专事海外“代理人战争”、海外培训和秘密行动的特殊单位。

Although the Sulaimani rank is only a brigadier, but in Iran has a strong influence and popularity. The \"holy city brigade\" he commanded was not a simple combat force, but a special unit dedicated to overseas \"proxy wars \", overseas training and covert operations.

  近年来伊朗在伊拉克通过打击“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)逐步扩大影响力,在叙利亚协助大马士革当局“起死回生”,以及在黎巴嫩、也门等地一系列有声有色的表现,据信都与他有关。

In recent years, Iran has gradually expanded its influence in Iraq through the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), assisting the authorities in Damascus to \"reward \"and a series of impressive performances in Lebanon and Yemen, all of which are believed to be linked to him.

  由于他多次挫败美国、以色列等的间谍行动,因此在伊朗民间也享有很高声誉,是一位兼具“实力派”和“偶像派”的关键性人物。

Because of his repeated defeats of spies such as the u.s. and israel, he enjoys a high reputation among iranians as a key figure in both \"power\" and \"idolatry \".

  美国总统特朗普(DonaldTrump)和国务卿蓬佩奥(MikePompeo)迅速表示“这是美国军方精心策划的‘定点清除’行动”。

President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were quick to say \"this is a well-crafted\" targeted clearance \"operation by the US military.

  特朗普还在推特上兴奋表示“他早该死了”,蓬佩奥称苏莱曼尼正准备对“该地区数百名美国公民的生命构成重大威胁”,“鉴于情况迫在眉睫,我们根据情报评估采取了上述行动”。

Mr. Trump also tweeted with excitement that \"he should have died long ago,\" with Mr. Pompeo saying that Mr. Suleimani was preparing to pose\" a major threat to the lives of hundreds of American citizens in the region,\" and that \"in view of the imminent situation, we have taken such action based on intelligence assessments.\"

  一般认为,美方此次采取“定点清除”行动,是针对稍早伊拉克什叶派抗议者包围并冲击美国驻伊拉克大使馆的报复,而后者又是针对美国对伊拉克什叶派社区狂轰滥炸、导致数十人伤亡的报复。

U.S.\" targeted killings \"are thought to be in retaliation for earlier Iraqi Shi'ite protesters who surrounded and stormed the U.S. embassy in Iraq, while the latter responded to U.S. indiscriminate bombing of Iraq's Shiite communities that killed dozens of people.

  自特朗普让美国单方面撕毁《伊朗核协定》(JCPOA)以来,伊朗和美国间的冲突层出不穷,在此期间伊朗甚至击落了美国的高价值无人机,美方并未如此大动干戈。

The conflict between Iran and the United States since Trump allowed the United States to unilaterally tear up the Iran Nuclear Agreement, during which Iran has even shot down high-value U.S. drones, has not been so aggressive.

  种种迹象表明,特朗普想借这种非常手段对伊朗进行他最喜欢的“极限施压”,迫使后者就范——哪怕形式上按照美国的条件回到谈判桌,如此一来特朗普就可以在大选前关键时刻宣称“我又赢了”,并按照自己的心意从中东撤出更多的美国军事力量。

There are signs that Trump wants to use this extraordinary measure to exert his favorite "extreme pressure "on Iran to force the latter to do so – even if he returns to the negotiating table on US terms, so that Trump can claim "I have won again "and withdraw more US military power from the Middle East as he likes.

  正因如此,两天来特朗普和蓬佩奥才不厌其烦表示“炸死苏莱曼尼会令中东局势降温而非升温”、“我们是在阻止战争而非挑起战争”。

That's why for two days mr. trump and mr. pompeo have not been bothered to say that \"killing mr. sulimani would cool the situation in the middle east rather than heat up\" and \"we are stopping the war rather than provoking it \".

  问题在于苏莱曼尼的地位是如此重要,名声又是如此显赫,他并非在伊拉克执行什么破坏性使命、而是“正常出差”(至少伊朗和伊拉克人都会这么诠释)时被美国派遣的“空中不速之客”杀死,这种情况下指望双方能“降温”、“谈判”,无异于缘木求鱼。

The problem is that mr sulimani's position is so important, and his reputation so prominent, that he is not on a destructive mission in iraq, but rather on a \"normal business trip \"(at least as the iranians and iraqis would have interpreted it) to be killed by a u. s.-based\" uninvited passengers in the air \"cooling\" and \"negotiating \".

  两天来,蓬佩奥先后和法国、中国、英国、俄罗斯、德国外长,阿富汗总统加尼(AshrafGhani),伊拉克总统巴尔哈姆·萨利赫(BarhamSaleh),以色列总理内塔尼亚胡(BenjaminNetanyahu))等交换意见,试图争取国际社会更多理解或支持,但效果显然并不理想。

Over the past two days, Pompeo and France, China, the United Kingdom, Russia, German Foreign Minister, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Iraqi President Barham Saleh, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and other exchanges of views, trying to gain more understanding or support from the international community, but the results are clearly not satisfactory.

  联合囯和世界各国领导人纷纷表示了对此事后果和中东局势的忧虑,甚至特朗普在中东最为倚赖的“铁三角”另两只角——以色列和沙特也并未像以往美国对伊朗实施高压后那样作兴高采烈状。

United nations and world leaders have voiced concerns about the fallout and the situation in the Middle East, and even the other two corners of the "iron triangle "that Trump relies most on in the Middle East – Israel and Saudi Arabia – have not been as aggressive as they have been since the US imposed a high pressure on Iran.

  沙特方面保持缄默;以色列内阁则第一时间要求阁员“在公开场合就此事谨言慎行”,以免刺激黎巴嫩真主党或巴勒斯坦激进组织“惹火上身”。

The saudis remained silent; israel's cabinet demanded for the first time that cabinet members \"speak carefully in public on the matter \", so as not to stimulate lebanon's hezbollah or palestinian militant group to\" provoke fire \".

  尽管此前特朗普和蓬佩奥刚刚对以色列“在美国驻伊拉克使馆危机爆发以来的支持”表示感谢。很显然,尽管世界各国在伊朗问题上立场不尽相同,但都对“刺杀苏莱曼尼会令中东局势缓和”的论断不敢苟同。

Though Trump and Pompeo have just thanked Israel for its \"support since the U.S. embassy crisis in Iraq.\" It is clear that, while the world has different positions on Iran, it does not agree with the argument that the assassination of Suleimani would ease the situation in the Middle East.

  伊朗实际掌握权力的“精神界”和世俗行政当局迅速对美方行径表示谴责,并誓言“为苏莱曼尼报仇”——而从美国要求其驻伊拉克侨民撤出或注意安全,以及扬言在几天内向中东增兵3000-3500等都可看出,即便美国自己也并不相信,炸死苏莱曼尼真的是“中东和平的福音”。

Iran's de facto "spiritual "and secular administrations have swiftly condemned the US, vowing to "reproach Suleimani "– as can be seen from America's demands for the withdrawal or security of its Iraqi citizens and its threats to increase its forces in the Middle East in a few days,3000-3500, even if the US itself does not believe that the killing of Suleimani is indeed a "good gospel of peace in the Middle East ".

  就在宣称“美国不追求战争或令局势升级”后几小时,伊拉克国家电视台称,美国再次空袭巴格达,导致6人死亡、3人重伤。伊拉克警方称,美方可能将伊拉克什叶派领袖沙比(HachdAl-Chaabi)设为新的“定点清除”目标,美方则对此不置可否。

Just hours after declaring that \"the united states is not pursuing war or escalating the situation \", iraqi state television said the u.s. air strikes in baghdad had killed six people and seriously wounded three. Iraq's police say the U.S. may target Iraq's Shiite leader, Hachd Al-Chaabi, as a new \"targeted removal\" target, and the U.S. is unbothered.

  种种迹象表明,任由苏莱曼尼事件后果扩大蔓延,不论在国际和国内,特朗普政府都“曲高和寡”,且中东局势倘继续恶化,会导致严重经济后果(油价已应声上涨),并再度重挫特朗普“从中东抽身”的既定方略。

There are signs that allowing the consequences of the Sulaimani affair to widen, both internationally and domestically, the Trump administration is "loud,"and that the deteriorating situation in the Middle East could lead to serious economic consequences (oil prices have risen) and to a renewed erosion of Trump's stated strategy of "out of the Middle East.”

  1月4日,伊朗最高宗教领袖哈梅内伊(AliKhamenei)任命卡尼准将(EsmailQaani)接任“圣城旅”指挥官,此前数小时,伊拉克“人民动员组织”也任命了新的副主席阿米里(Hadial-Amiri)。

On January 4, Iran's top religious leader, Ali Khamenei, appointed Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani to take over as commander of the Al-Quds Brigade, hours after the Iraqi People's Mobilization Organization also appointed a new Vice-President, Hadial-Amiri.

  这一系列迅速的人事安排表明,伊朗及其地区盟友正在以远比外界预料中快的速度和效率,重新搭建“什叶派之弧”的指挥体系和人事班底,以填补两位干将死亡的空缺,它们的反制或许很快就会拉开帷幕。

This series of rapid personnel arrangements suggests that iran and its regional allies are re-establishing the \"shia arc\" chain of command and personnel to fill the gap between the deaths of the two cadres at a much faster pace and efficiency than expected, and that their counter-attack may soon begin.

  如前所述,特朗普所谋求的是在确保美国霸权及对当地战略要点控制权前提下,尽量减少在中东的军事存在和各种投入,一旦大打出手显然违背初衷。

As stated earlier, what Trump seeks is to minimize the military presence and all kinds of investment in the Middle East, while ensuring US hegemony and control over local strategic points, is clearly against the original intention.

  伊朗在一系列制裁下元气大伤,如果贸然升级对抗可能遭遇更严重后果,且“鸡蛋硬碰石头”,也不符合“以弱抗强”的战略原则,即“不打无把握之仗”。

Iran is hurting by a series of sanctions and could suffer more serious consequences if it escalates hastily, and \"eggs and stones \"do not conform to the strategic principle of \"weak resistance \", that is,\"no uncertain battles \".

  许多分析家认为,伊朗接下来可能仍然会使用驾轻就熟的“代理人方式”进行报复,如在叙利亚、伊拉克等自己影响力强大,美国又有驻军等醒目目标的“主场”,对美国重要目标进行打击,这种打击既可能是类似“无人机炸油田”那样的“准特战行动”,也可能是更大规模的“包围美国使领馆静坐”之类“软战争”。

Many analysts believe that iran will continue to retaliate with a familiar \"proxy approach \", such as its own powerful presence in syria and iraq, as well as a\" home court \"of american targets such as garrisons, which could be a\" quasi-special war \"like the\" drone strike \"or a\" soft war \"like the\" sit-down \"around american embassies and consulates\" on a larger scale.

  不妨将苏莱曼尼事件视作中东的“战争阀门”之一,但必须知道一点:任何阀门都可以拧向“开”和“关”两个方向。

Think of the suleymani affair as one of the \"war valves\" in the middle east, but know one thing: any valve can be screwed in both \"open\" and \"closed\" directions.